【欧洲板块收益表现为经济敲响警钟】尽管伊朗战争爆发后，欧洲二季度财报整体表现强劲，盈利预期随后也被上调，但全球能源价格上涨正在颠覆欧洲股市走势。本周初布伦特原油尚不足每桶100美元，隔夜一度逼近110美元/桶。欧洲斯托克600指数有望录得4月以来最差单周表现，昨日收盘自5月以来首次跌破100日移动均线。欧洲股市本月迄今相对全球市场的表现，重现冲突爆发初期的交易特征：欧洲股市跑输美股与亚太股市。欧洲科技板块占比较低，无法对冲能源成本上行带来的冲击。消费品服务板块与零售股走弱，源于居民购买力下滑；医疗保健板块下跌更多是诺华公司的个股因素。工业、建筑及航空企业遭受油价上涨冲击，能源抬升了它们的投入成本。高收益率环境拖累地产股下行。银行与能源板块此前一直是欧洲股市的重要支撑，但在当前宏观环境下，其支撑力度不足以抵消市场下跌。虽然有消息称伊朗与海湾国家拟推动霍尔木兹海峡相关协议，带动今日原油价格小幅回落，但能源价格短期内大概率难以大幅下行。若能源价格持续处于高位，二季度财报抬升后的盈利目标，对欧洲企业而言将难以实现。
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