交易员无视美国财长斯科特・贝森特“跟我对赌必亏”的强硬表态

格隆汇
Sep 10
美国财政部长贝森特反复警告投资者,他会让这些人遭受重大损失。他坚称,无论是推高油价、压低日元汇率,抑或是最为关键的抬升美国国债收益率,投资者都在犯下严重错误。因为他站在这笔交易的对手盘,掌握着投资者无法获取的政府政策规划核心信息。这位前对冲基金交易员总喜欢用博弈论术语将此称为信息不对称。仅过去三周,他就至少四次在公开场合提及这一概念,其中就包括本周二,他向外汇交易员放话:“想跟我对赌,尽管来。” 但是交易员们已经开始这么做了——至少在债券与原油市场是如此;日元市场暂未出现该情况,美国已紧急出手协助日本当局。自从贝森特开始对原油与债券这两大市场口头喊话以来,这两个对中期选举前美国家庭民生至关重要的市场走势均与他的预期背道而驰。基准原油价格突破每桶100美元,推高加油站汽油零售价。周三,他推出首笔加码的债券回购操作,意图压低10年期美债基准收益率(该收益率是抵押贷款及其他各类贷款的利率基准),但美债收益率反而大幅上行,延续两周来的抛售行情,一举触及4.85%的三年新高。

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