金吾财讯 | 中信证券研究指，2026年上半年，44家上市券商实现扣非净利润1542.8亿元，同比增长63.7%，营收增速创近年新高。头部集中度大幅跃升，TOP7利润占比升至60.1%，科技金融"投融管退"闭环进入集中兑现期，为"十五五"开局奠定高增基调。该机构认为，在新"国九条"及资本市场"1+N"政策体系引领下，证券行业有望依托高成交额维持、股权融资常态化修复及PE/另类子公司利润集中兑现持续展现业绩弹性。当前证券（中信）指数PB（LF）1.26倍，处于2016年以来18.9%分位数，A股估值位于历史偏低位置，估值修复空间充足。推荐两条主线：1）发展主线，看好科技金融"投融管退"闭环能力强、国际化布局领先的券商；2）热点主线：行业整合加速与国家队减持完毕背景下，并购重组、牛散入股等主题性机会值得关注。
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