金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，2026年8月CPI同比上涨0.8%，较7月回升0.3个百分点，环比上涨0.4%；核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，较7月回升0.1个百分点，环比上涨0.1%。同期PPI同比上涨3.8%，较7月回升0.3个百分点，环比上涨0.4%。整体看，8月CPI基本符合市场预期，PPI则强于市场预期。8月通胀读数整体回升，但并不意味着需求明显改善。CPI回升更多受能源和黄金价格上行带动，核心项和服务项延续温和韧性；PPI回升则主要来自原油反弹带动的资源品价格修复，以及出口链条对局部制造业价格的支撑。整体看，本月价格回升更多体现为外部扰动和局部修复，而非总需求驱动下的全面上行。四季度，CPI大概率维持低位温和波动，PPI则仍可能在资源品价格反复扰动下保持高波动，但中期内普涨基础仍不稳固。对市场而言，8月通胀回升并不足以支持全面再通胀交易，也暂不足以对政策和利率形成明显约束。后续资产定价的关键，仍在于需求修复能否由服务端和局部出口链条，进一步扩展至更广泛的商品消费和工业品需求。
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