摩根士丹利:英国央行的量化紧缩对长期英国国债冲击最大

智通财经
Sep 09
【摩根士丹利:英国央行的量化紧缩对长期英国国债冲击最大】摩根士丹利称,英国央行减持金边国债持仓,对长期金边国债造成的影响更为显著,近年来长期国债的市场需求持续走弱。策略师法比奥・巴桑宁与卢卡・萨尔福德估算,量化紧缩对 30 年期国债收益率造成 70 个基点的影响,而对 10 年期国债收益率约 25 个基点的影响,与英国央行的估算基本一致。他们在报告中写道:“金边国债大规模发行叠加英国央行持仓不断下降,使得私人投资者需要承接和融资的抵押品规模上升;与此同时,投资者群体对价格变得更为敏感,并且越来越偏好短期品种。”摩根士丹利预计,在下周的议息会议上,量化紧缩出售国债的期限配比将调整为短期、中期、长期金边国债。该行估算英国央行将把未来一年的减持节奏放缓至 500 亿英镑。

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