广发证券:汇兑和原材料导致Q2承压 把握家电龙头经营韧性

智通财经
Sep 10

智通财经APP获悉,广发证券发布研报称,2026Q2家电板块营业总收入4005亿元(YoY-0.6%),净利润345亿元(YoY-9.4%),毛利率25.5%(YoY-0.5pct),净利率8.6%(YoY-0.8pct)。白电业绩稳健增长,具备稳定ROE及高分红优势,有望受益以旧换新政策拉动。黑电龙头享受产品迭代红利、国内竞争格局改善、海外份额扩张的三重共振。清洁电器竞争格局改善逻辑持续,看好2026年利润率修复的弹性。两轮车行业国内修复+东南亚出海放量。

广发证券主要观点如下:

家电板块收入端同比负增长,收入端有压力

26Q1、26Q2收入分别同比-0.1%、-0.6%。分内外销看,26Q2家电社零同比下降,行业增长受到去年高基数以及国补边际效应递减影响。从出口端看,26Q2北美出口回暖,亚洲整体承压,子板块分化大。

盈利端看,板块净利率整体下滑

26Q2板块毛利率、净利率分别同比-0.5pct、-0.8pct,盈利能力下滑主要因为原材料价格上涨,以及人民币升值。但是龙头企业普遍通过控制费用率等方式对冲原材料和汇兑高基数,净利率下降幅度并不严重。

白电

26Q2收入/净利润分别同比-1.8%/-9.3%,净利率同比-0.8pct白电仍然展现出韧性,内销收入和毛利率好于此前市场悲观预期,外销收入则走出一定分化,核心还是对美敞口和自主品牌阿尔法。成本端的压制因素:汇兑>原材料。预计原材料H2对毛利率影响依旧可控,汇兑压力会在H2降低。

厨电

26Q2收入/净利润分别同比-15.2%/-57.9%,净利率同比-5.0pct。地产承压,叠加规模效应减弱,短期业绩不佳。

小家电

26Q2收入/净利润分别同比+5.9%/+6.2%,扫地机外销景气度仍较高,毛利率受成本端拖累。

黑电

黑电板块26Q2收入/净利润分别同比+5.0%/-1.4%,净利率同比-0.3pct。国内行业量减价增,中国企业全球份额扩张,结构改善驱动黑电品牌方增长维稳。

风险提示:原材料价格大幅上涨;汇率大幅波动;行业需求趋弱;行业竞争加剧等。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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