ChainCatcher 消息，比特币链上花费产出利润率（SOPR）已连续三周保持在盈亏平衡点 1 之上，创下 2026 年以来最长的看涨周期。CryptoQuant 数据显示，该指标自 8 月 19 日起持续高于 1，当前报 1.002，表明链上转移的比特币大多处于盈利状态。链上分析工具 Checkonchain 指出，短期持有者 SOPR 的结构正开始类似于早期牛市复苏阶段，而非熊市中反弹即抛售的模式。
不过，ARK Invest 投资组合经理、Puell Multiple 指标创始人 David Puell 警告称，比特币价格仍存在下行风险。他在接受 CryptoQuant 采访时表示，需要更多证据才能确认本轮熊市底部已经形成，SOPR 需在更长时间内保持在 1 以上，且投资者持续实现盈利而价格不再创出新低。此外，比特币还需在周线级别形成一系列更高的高点和更高的低点，而这一模式目前仍未出现。
此前，CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju 曾基于其专有的牛熊市场周期指标，认为熊市已经结束。目前比特币价格在 8 万美元附近维持区间震荡。
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