瑞银:上调内地三大电信运营商评级至“买入” AI上行空间被低估

智通财经
Sep 11

智通财经APP获悉,瑞银发布研报称,将中国电信(00728)、中国移动(00941)及中国联通(00762)评级由“中性”上调至“买入”,因股息下行风险已反映在股价,且AI上行空间被低估。中国电信目标价由5.1港元升至5.6港元,中国移动目标价由83港元升至95港元,中国联通目标价由7.5港元降至7.1港元。

报告指出,目前中国电信运营商交易于约7%的2026年预期股息收益率,较历史均值高出1个标准差,并相对区域电信同业及其他中国高股息标的存在明显溢价。该行认为,这一估值折让反映了投资者对AI相关资本开支需求及未来股息可持续性的担忧。

不过,该行认为,市场低估了AI投资的回报潜力,预期这些投资将优化运营商业务结构并提升整体ROIC。此外,凭借稳定的自由现金流生成能力,中国电信运营商在2026年受增值税影响进行调整后,仍能维持可持续的股息分派。

该行认为,随着AI云与IDC收入增长加速、资本开支强度维持可控,将支持ROIC进一步扩张并强化股息可持续性,行业有望迎来重估。目标价基于中国电信2026年预期股息收益率5%,预期在可观的AI业务敞口与支持股息的稳健资产负债表之间取得平衡,以及中国移动与中国联通5.5%-6%的目标股息率。

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