FOMC决议前美债承压 低期限溢价面临重估风险

智通财经
Sep 15
【FOMC决议前美债承压 低期限溢价面临重估风险】本周美联储利率决议出炉前,长期美国国债走势脆弱,10年期期限溢价已低于年初水平。短期内油价对美债收益率走势起着决定性作用,而令人担忧的财政赤字和日益激烈的资本竞争意味着,长债的任何反弹都将是昙花一现。市场实际上已将美联储逼入本周加息的境地,推动周三政策会议加息的概率升至90%以上。因此,市场讨论的焦点已从美联储是否会加息转向紧缩周期将持续多久,定价倾向于年底前至少还会再加息一次。能源价格上涨引发的通胀加速,以及大规模的美债供应表明,各期限国债短期内恐难获得喘息之机。事实上,10年期收益率刚刚触及2007年以来最高水平。

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