DWS:美联储本周大概率加息 维持不变门槛较高或引发更多异议

智通财经
2 hours ago

智通财经APP获悉,DWS首席美国经济学家Christian Scherrmann表示,美联储9月份议息会议加息可能性很高,就业数据显示劳动市场处于全民就业,招聘回升且未有加薪压力,下行风险基本消除;通胀略高于可接受水平,在鹰派角度加息理由已相当充分。目前,市场预期未来12个月将加息3.5次。

8月核心CPI同比增幅降至2.4%,但环比升0.3%,高于理想0.2%水平。他指,果断加息或可提高美联储公信力,但在缺乏前瞻指引下,市场或误解为官员更忧虑,导致更长紧缩周期预期;若维持利率不变,则可能被解读为忽视通胀风险,推高收益率。

他认为,对美联储加息不会感到意外,同时将维持利率不变纳入可能情景,但认为维持不变门槛甚高,因通胀必须逐月回落;而且若利率继续维持不变,势必引起较7月会议后的更多异议,或会被解读为局方忽视通胀风险。中期前景方面,他认为大部分通胀源于外部冲击,主要针对本土经济活动的加息周期难以令人信服。

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