美智库:俄乌相互打击黑海粮食出口设施已经威胁到化肥贸易

格隆汇
Sep 14
美国战略与国际问题研究中心(CSIS)表示,近期俄乌双方对黑海和亚速海港口、货船及粮食出口设施的相互打击,已使全球相当一部分小麦贸易暂时难以进入国际市场,并开始威胁化肥贸易,成为俄乌战争以来农业相关基础设施遭袭的一次明显升级。俄罗斯与乌克兰合计约占全球小麦出口的27%,目前俄罗斯约70%的粮食出口能力受到影响,乌克兰约90%的粮食海运能力也因黑海港口运输受阻而下线。CSIS指出,问题不只在于两国出口下降,而在于替代通道难以迅速弥补缺口:俄罗斯转向波罗的海港口,乌克兰更多依赖铁路、公路和多瑙河,但运力有限、成本更高。与此同时,霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻、化肥价格偏高以及全球主要小麦出口国减产正在叠加,进一步推升全球粮价风险。CSIS认为,如果黑海袭击长期持续,最先承压的将是高度依赖粮食进口的发展中国家。

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