高盛:中东石油出口仍具韧性但风险上升,布油明年或升穿120美元

格隆汇
2 hours ago
高盛提高油价上行情景的概率,若2027年平均海湾产量仍较战前水平低每日400万桶,布伦特油价可超过120美元。近期估计显示,波斯湾8月原油产量较7月减少每日120万桶,意味累计产量损失约每日710万桶;市场8月或已转为更大短缺,外部估计与可见库存消耗平均约为每日300万桶赤字,高于该行估算。该行估计近期波斯湾石油总出口略升至约每日1,600万至1,700万桶(约为伊战爆发前水平的70%),可见出口仅约每日1,300万桶(7日移动平均),对波斯湾出口的净打击约为每日670万桶。

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