金吾财讯 | 随着美联储议息会议临近，华尔街投研机构Macro Risk Advisors LLC发出警告称，美联储本周即将在主席凯文·沃什主持下启动的加息举措，极有可能成为美股市场震荡的催化剂，预计标普500指数近期将面临8%至10%的阶段性回调，且年底前可能迎来第二波下行压力。目前，交易员对美联储周三加息25个基点的预期概率已从一周前的60%急剧升至近乎100%。宏观风险顾问公司创始人兼CEO迪恩·库努特在给客户的报告中指出，高企的借贷成本将直接挤压无法有效转嫁成本的企业利润率，并对过度集中在头部科技股的市场构成波动冲击。9月以来，受能源成本高企与通胀回升推动，美债10年期收益率攀升至近二十年高位，已拖累标普500指数呈现走弱态势，英伟达（NVDA）、博通（AVGO）等关键科技权重股本月均出现明显回调。库努特强调，当前的市场走势与2018年秋季高度相似——彼时标普500指数在9月触顶后，于10月至11月快速暴跌10%，并因持续紧缩在12月进一步扩大跌幅。针对美联储在“K型低流动性经济”环境下的连续紧缩路径，分析师建议投资者采取防御性姿态，以规避企业盈利前景承压与宏观流动性收紧带来的双重风险。
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