策略师:中期选举前汽油价格达到5美元的风险极高

格隆汇
Sep 15
资深大宗商品策略师Jeff Currie表示,美国汽油平均价格几乎肯定会在中期选举前达到每加仑5美元,原因是稀缺与货币贬值形成了致命组合。最初始于成品油的短缺,如今正向上游蔓延至原油,能源冲击进入了一个危险的新阶段。汽油达到每加仑5美元是一个重要的心理关口,尤其是在11月3日中期选举投票、国会控制权悬而未决之际。选举日之前汽油达到5美元的概率“极高”。Currie警告称,炼油厂在柴油和汽油产出之间来回切换,最终将耗尽运营灵活性。此外,一直帮助填补供应缺口的战略石油储备释放,没有任何续期的迹象。未来美国柴油价格可能达到每加仑7至9美元。市场正在进入这轮大宗商品涨势中一个非常危险的阶段,因为两边的短缺都如此极端,以至于整个板块一起动。这种同步飙升表明,问题比典型的供应挤压更具结构性。

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