金吾财讯 | 煤炭股受压，兖煤澳大利亚（03668）跌6.58%，中国秦发（00866）跌4.74%，首钢资源（00639）跌4.60%，兖矿能源（01171）跌3.78%，MONGOL MINING（00975）跌3.73%，力量发展（01277）跌2.51%，中煤能源（01898）跌1.89%，中国神华（01088）跌1.39%。山西证券表示，安监环境严格约束供给释放，84号文将供应收缩焦点从民企转移至国企，供给收缩对炼焦煤冲击更大。印尼、澳大利亚进口煤价格高企，增量尚存不确定性。煤价涨势趋缓，但不具备大跌基础。基本面支撑煤炭股，关注政策容忍度。开源证券表示，当前煤价进入上行阶段，行情驱动正由旺季需求逐步转向供给收缩。“查超产”及安全监管趋严制约主产区产量释放，供给恢复仍需时间；随着冬储启动及取暖旺季临近，煤炭供需基本面有望进一步改善。动力煤受益于现货价格上涨及长协机制对产业链利润的稳定作用；炼焦煤市场化程度更高，对供给变化及下游补库节奏更为敏感，价格及业绩弹性相对更大。
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