金吾财讯 | 尽管利率期货市场显示美联储在即将召开的9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上加息的预期高达87%，但知名智库学者警告称，美联储本周极可能打破市场一致预期，选择按兵不动。美国企业研究所（AEI）经济政策研究主任Michael R. Strain表示，美联储在7月会议上已表现出维持利率不变的倾向，而近期的经济数据不足以改变其整体评估。尽管8月消费者价格指数（CPI）令部分决策者关注，但核心PCE年化增速仍稳定在3.1%左右，核心服务业通胀也未出现二次加速迹象。因此，多数FOMC委员仍倾向于将当前数据视为持续抗通胀趋势的一部分，而非通胀显著反弹。此外，近期金融条件的自然紧缩在一定程度上替代了加息的效果。Michael分析指出，若美联储选择单次加息，不仅面临市场沟通难度——特别是在债券市场已消化年内多次加息预期的背景下——还可能引发额外的市场波动。除非决策层意图明确释放政策路径转向信号，否则本周维持现行利率仍是可能性更大的选择。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.