中金研报称,从维护美联储信誉的角度,9月最好是加息,这才是决定加息与否的关键。7月FOMC沃什的“刻意模糊”让市场预期陷

智通财经
5 hours ago
中金研报称,从维护美联储信誉的角度,9月最好是加息,这才是决定加息与否的关键。7月FOMC沃什的“刻意模糊”让市场预期陷入混乱,美债期限溢价从7月末的0.65%升至8月中的0.9%,迫使沃什在Jackson Hole会议上作出鹰派承诺。如果数据走弱,美联储估计还有腾挪空间,但随着非农和通胀陆续超预期,美联储也就被逐渐逼到“墙角”。虽然这些短期指标都有局限性,但在FOMC前也仅能依赖这些数据。试想,如果此次会议依然“强行不加”,那市场会如何看待此前的鹰派表态?恐怕只会造成更严重的信任危机和美债失控。

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