中信证券:航运周期范式重塑,关注快递旺季价格

格隆汇
9 hours ago
中信证券研报认为,传统航运周期供需分析范式需要因势利导、相应优化调整。“供应链稳定性和安全性”替换全球化时代的“效率和成本优先”成为首要核心要素,定价权明显向运力控制方转移。对于集运而言,码头拥堵、关键水道受阻、贸易流向碎片化形成影响因素的持续爆发点,运力调配更加灵活,高频率、高密度服务绑定优质客户、长期成本和效率优势凸显的区域集装箱船东或率先受益。油运年内VLCC季度利润有望维持环增,霍尔木兹海峡已经摆脱二元状态,绕行、海湾STS等持续消耗有效运力,货源替代、运距拉长在美伊冲突进一步加剧的8月表现尤为明显,利润年内环比增长有望钝化传统上对旺季最高运价的博弈。成品油运力西移加剧供给紧张,关注国内出口恢复和季节性驱动。同时关注快递旺季价格边际变化、雄商通车。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10