理查德·艾比与约翰·奥瑟斯撰文称，人工智能相关债务的大量涌现正对债券利差形成压力，人工智能领域的支出推动2026年美国可转换债券总发行量创下1310亿美元的纪录。今年截至目前，科技类可转换债券回报率达53%，但债务市场其他板块的压力正逐步显现。
美国财政部回购操作引发收益率飙升，带来了新的疑问。正如斯科特·贝森特部长在回购公告发布后所言，AI企业发债是否“几乎无视收益率”——即发债方认为项目回报足以覆盖任何融资成本？答案大概率是肯定的。即便美债收益率攀升至多年高位，AI相关债券发行依旧势头不减。
这类供给背后的逻辑是：人工智能项目的投资回报率极高，债务融资成本基本可以忽略。但该假设仅在一定范围内成立。随着投资者出现倦怠情绪，新发债券的发行折价不断走高，这套逻辑正日益逼近临界点。
市场对政策收紧预期升温，构成另一重阻力。这也是“无视收益率”这一论点始终无法解释的问题：发债主体或许不在乎融资成本，但交易对手方必须愿意按该价格承接债券。全文详见此处。
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