机构:预计英国央行将按兵不动 放缓量化紧缩步伐

格隆汇
Yesterday
尽管全球油价大幅上涨,但英国央行本周仍有望维持利率不变。不过,该行预计将放缓出售2009年至2021年间为提振经济而购入的政府债券的步伐。英国央行行长贝利上周表示,除非中东战争引发的油价持续上涨导致国内物价压力更加持久,否则央行今年没有“秘密加息计划”。本月接受路透社调查的经济学家一致预测,英国央行将在9月维持利率不变,且多数人认为明年更有可能降息而非加息。但随着油价突破每桶100美元,且与英国央行在7月所概述的三种最不利情景之一相符,一些分析人士开始产生疑虑。此外,分析师还希望看到有关量化紧缩计划(QT)未来长期走向的线索。德意志银行首席英国经济学家Sanjay Raja:“我们认为,关于资产负债表的讨论应从‘资产负债表缩减的速度’转向‘其长期结构应如何设计’。”

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