摩根大通策略师称股市能够承受渐进式加息

环球市场播报
6 hours ago

  摩根大通表示,只要美联储加息节奏保持渐进,且加息发生在盈利强劲增长、通胀预期未脱锚的环境下,全球股票市场能够经受住加息冲击。

  由米斯拉夫·马泰卡领衔的策略师团队撰文指出,股票与收益率之间的正向关联或将持续,但容错空间正在收窄;当美国10年期国债收益率升至约5%至5.5%时,二者关系转为负相关的风险将会上升。

  策略师认为,股市已经消化国债收益率上行,因为本轮收益率抬升由经济活动改善与盈利上调推动,实际利率走高,而非长期通胀预期攀升所致。

  团队承认,短期油价走势或将决定风险偏好,季节性因素偏弱,投资者对通胀心存担忧,但不应由此过度推演形势;10月起陆续披露的三季度财报有望安抚市场。

  在另一份研报中,由杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布亚斯带队的摩根大通策略师指出,若美联储开启一轮幅度温和的加息周期,即仅撤销去年的“预防性降息”,股市尚可应对。

  但如果通胀再度加速,市场开始计入范围更广的加息周期,股票将面临“显著下行风险”,不过这并非策略师团队的基准情景。

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