大摩策略师:美联储加息背景下,美国优质股票有望跑赢大盘

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【大摩策略师:美联储加息背景下,美国优质股票有望跑赢大盘】摩根士丹利策略师表示,如果美联储本周如期加息,美国优质股票大概率将取得超额收益。策略师指出,从历史规律来看,在紧缩周期的首次加息阶段,优质蓝筹股往往跑赢市场。由迈克尔·威尔逊领衔的研究团队在研报中写道:“还值得注意的是,周期股与动量股通常会在首次加息之后表现占优。”当前推动利率上行的因素是强劲的经济增长,而非财政可持续性问题或是超预期高通胀。后续主要风险在于:若霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁叠加中国消费回暖,油价可能突然飙升,进而引发意外通胀冲击。这或将“把当前看起来属于适度、预防性的政策调整,转变为市场眼中持续时间更长的加息周期。”

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