十铨陈庆文:存储价格续涨且DRAM缺口显著,27年上半年缺货最严峻

智通财经
3 hours ago
【十铨陈庆文:存储价格续涨且DRAM缺口显著,27年上半年缺货最严峻】十铨总经理陈庆文表示,目前记忆体市场供给持续吃紧,第四季价格仍会上涨,但涨幅将较过去八、九个月趋缓。具体而言,价格涨势将从单月大涨15%至20%,转为一季上涨约20%至30%的节奏。他强调,当前市场的问题并非价格太高,而是供给没有那么多。从供给来看,存储原厂产能均已被大量长约包揽,新厂扩产速度也跟不上需求。以美光MegaFab为例,最快要到2027年第四季才会有第一条产线开出,而2028、2029年的订单也已经接完。陈庆文也透露,近期业界陆续收到上游原厂通知,明确转达2027年释出货源将大幅紧缩,甚至原厂2027-2028年产能几乎都被预订完。从需求来看,他认为,DRAM需求目前比NAND Flash更加稳固,DRAM缺口非常明显且庞大;NAND Flash虽然也有缺口,但相对没有那么严重。预计真正严重的缺货将落在2027年上半年,届时外部能取得的货量非常少。

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