Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1007 ET - Dubai leads most major Gulf markets higher, with the Dubai Financial Market General Index gaining 0.6%. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index each edge up 0.1%, while Qatar's QE Index slips 0.3%. Qatar's budget deficit widened sharply to QAR21.2 billion in the second quarter as hydrocarbon revenue fell 97% on year amid the collapse in LNG exports, though the country's strong net asset position leaves it well placed to finance the shortfall, Capital Economics says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0946 ET - Yields on U.K. ten-year government bonds, or gilts, rise to their highest since 2007 while two-year gilt yields reach their highest since 2023. The moves come as rising oil prices raise inflation concerns and cause investors to ramp up expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months. Brent crude price climbs 4.5% to $109.3 per barrel. Markets expect the BOE to hold rates on Thursday, but fully price four rate hikes by April 2027, LSEG data show, a notable increase from last week's pricing of two rate rises in this timeframe. Ten-year gilt yields hit a high of 5.418% while two-year gilt yields climb more than 10 basis points to 4.942%, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0933 ET - The average of the Bank of Canada's preferred readings of core inflation was largely unchanged in August, near 2%. Bradley Saunders of Capital Economics says that, nevertheless, there are signs of worry that core CPI is heating up. He says the BOC's preferred core CPI gauges have recorded annualized monthly changes of 2.7% for the past two months, and now crude oil is above $100 a barrel. He adds there was "concerning strength" in some non-core items linked to shelter, travel and telecommunications. Given recent hawkish comments from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, "it is increasingly likely that a rate hike is enacted before the year is out," Saunders says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0933 ET - Markets have raised their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months due to advancing oil prices. Brent crude price climbs 4% to $108.84 amid widening Middle East conflict after Iran-backed Houthi militants seized key territory around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important shipping route for Saudi Arabia's oil exports. Investors expect the BOE to keep interest rates on hold during Thursday's policy decision, but fully price in four BOE rate increases by June 2027, LSEG data show. This is a notable increase from a week ago when investors fully priced in two BOE rate hikes by the middle of next year. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0931 ET - The sharp rise in crude oil prices this month casts a cloud over Canada's inflation report for August. Total inflation in August hit 3%, or unchanged from the prior month, and core-CPI readings were also unchanged. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets, says BOC officials "won't take much comfort" from this data because crude oil is trading above $100 a barrel. "Persistently elevated energy prices are likely to be passed through more clearly to consumers in the coming months," Mendes says. He reckons BOC officials could be "forced into action" unless crude-oil prices retreat. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0924 ET - U.S. natural gas futures gain ground as weekend weather forecasts showed summer heat lasting a little longer. "Near-term weather-driven gas demand is strong, with further backing from robust LNG," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. But production remains prolific, keeping winter futures prices subdued, he adds. "Winter contract weakness halted near-term upside early in September and, unless prices move higher, may continue to impede the extent of near-term Nymex upside potential." The Nymex front month is up 1.3% at $2.868/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0903 ET - Treasury yields rise, hovering near multi-year highs, amid expectations the Fed may raise interest rates Wednesday. The conflict in the Middle East pushes oil prices up by nearly 5%, stoking inflation fears. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.5%, as the greenback strengthens 0.9% against the yen and 0.6% versus the euro. The 10-year yield is at 4.985% and could breach 5% for the first time since 2023, on an intraday basis. The benchmark hasn't closed above 5% since 2007. The two-year is at 4.641%, receding after reaching its highest level since July 2024. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0852 ET - Gold futures are lower as the dollar gains amid heightened expectations for a Fed interest-rate increase this week. "The possibility of more interest-rate hikes by major central banks, amid higher oil prices and geopolitical developments, could further support yields and keep gold under strain," Critical Metals CEO Tony Sage says in a note. The Fed meeting is the main event for gold, which could be pulled down by any hawkish signals at the press conference, he says, while "any soft messaging from the Fed may ease tightening bets and help gold recover." Gold for December delivery is down 2% in New York at $4,321.50 a troy ounce. Silver is off 2.7% at $63.40 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0821 ET - Oil futures are extending last week's gains as the outage of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline adds to supply disruptions from the Middle East and Houthis make territorial advances in Yemen. Analysts at Capital Economics say the pipeline outage adds upside to their year-end estimate of $100 a barrel for Brent. "However, we are minded to stick with our existing forecast for now, largely because we simply do not know how long-lasting the damage to affected pumping stations along the East-West pipeline is," they say. "There is a chance that this could prove short-lived." Brent is up 3.4% at $108.12 a barrel and WTI is up 3% at $103.07. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0524 ET - The selling pressure across global bond markets has been driven by common factors, The Investment Institute by UniCredit's Francesco Maria Di Bella says in a note. These include the inflation shock due to the war in the Middle East, still-resilient economic data and abundant supply coming from public and private investment, the fixed-income strategist says. Bond valuations have also been affected by more idiosyncratic factors, such as substantial fiscal expansion expected in Japan and fiscal risks in the U.K., he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0338 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, rise due to concerns about inflation as oil prices climb further. Widening conflict in the Middle East and further disruptions to the oil supply routes have caused oil prices to surge, raising the risk of elevated global inflation. Increased prospects of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this week also push government-bond yields higher. Ten-year gilt yields climb 1.1 basis points to 5.369%, having hit a 19-year high of 5.4056% on Friday, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0334 ET - London's miners open lower Monday morning as oil prices rise and AI stocks tumble. Friday's U.S. consumer report also solidified expectations the Fed will increase interest rates, which could slow investment and cut demand for mined metals and minerals. Higher oil prices will eat into margins given miners are some of the world's largest consumers of diesel. Copper miner Antofagasta falls 2.4%. Glencore drops 2.01% while BHP's London-listed shares trade 1.7% lower. Rio Tinto's London shares are down 1.6%.

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