金吾财讯 | 中信证券发文研究称，8月产需两端表现分化，工业生产景气强于需求端景气，三驾马车呈现“出口强劲、投资改善、消费偏弱”格局。生产侧，8月工业增加值增速超预期回升，主要是出口、投资单月同比读数提升促进工业品需求，但消费增速放缓则拖累服务业生产景气小幅下滑。需求侧，受补贴同比退坡及补贴透支效应、金价高位震荡上行等因素影响，8月社零增速低于前值和预期；8月专项债的发行进度有所提速，固定资产投资单月降幅边际收窄。向后看，我们判断下半年出口有望保持较强韧性，固定资产投资有望在财政资金加快投放带动下企稳回升，但居民消费的后续修复或仍偏慢。宏观政策方面，考虑到8月经济运行情况总体好于7月，经济下行斜率有放缓迹象，增量政策择机推出的窗口期可能延后。
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