9月16日，Capital Economics资深市场经济学家James Reilly重申先前预测，标普500指数今年底可望升至8250点；到2027年底可能重挫21%，降至6500点。Reilly在最新报告中表示，综合来看，目前数据符合“泡沫末期”特征，多数观察指标已达到或接近过去股市见顶前的水准。
首先是股票估值，目前市场经周期调整本益比(CAPE)已逼近网路泡沫高峰，标普500相对美国公债的估值也接近网路泡沫时期的极端水准。第二，企业获利成长预期偏高，标普500未来12个月每股盈余(EPS)成长预期，已来到与网路泡沫高峰相当的水准。第三，随着科技巨头持续大举支出、自由现金流缩水，市场开始质疑这波AI资本支出的可持续性；预估到2027年，主要AI超大规模云端业者的合计自由现金流将转为负值。第四，美股指数市值愈来愈集中于少数大型股票，集中度已升至极端水准。第五，股票发行活动也快速升温，符合泡沫末期常见特征。过去类似的发行热潮通常意味泡沫距离结束可能只剩数月，而非数年。
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