金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，8月份中国经济表现依然分化，生产和出口的强劲增长无法弥补内需持续疲软的拖累。工业增加值增速加快并超出市场预期，而社会消费品零售总额、固定资产投资及信贷需求则延续下滑趋势。尽管一线城市及二手房销售出现企稳迹象，但整体房地产行业的持续下行仍在压制居民财富与开发商的现金流。该机构预计2026年四季度的增量政策支持将侧重于加快现有财政资源的投放、政策性银行的融资支持和针对性房地产宽松政策，同时不排除进一步下调RRR和LPR的可能性。鉴于对居民需求和收入的额外支持有限，消费可能延续疲软，政策目标将专注于稳定投资。该机构维持全年GDP增长4.6%的基准预测，并预计2026年第三、四季度GDP增速分别为4.5%和4.6%。股票市场盈利表现将持续分化，具备全球竞争力的出口企业、拥有可见订单及定价权并能产生现金流的AI相关设备供应商和能提供可持续分红的企业将受到青睐，而内需相关的周期性行业则可能面临挑战。
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