中金研报称,展望年内,我们认为油价或下有“供应底”、上有“需求顶”。一方面,三季度以来中东原油复产进度不及预期,近期再度

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中金研报称,展望年内,我们认为油价或下有“供应底”、上有“需求顶”。一方面,三季度以来中东原油复产进度不及预期,近期再度升级的地缘局势将促使市场重估中东原油供应损失的持续性,支撑油价“供应底”抬升。另一方面,内生需求依然偏弱,夏季需求修复不宜线性外推,油价破百后“需求顶”或将显现。综合以上,我们上调4Q26布伦特油价中枢预测至85美元/桶(6月预测为80美元/桶),以反映更持续的供应缺口和更低的库存水平。成品油市场中,短期油价及运费上涨正在冲击欧亚炼油毛利,汽油等成品油裂解价差存高位回落压力,相较之下,我们提示关注海外柴油市场的结构性短缺和裂解价差韧性。

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