金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研究称，8月新增人民币贷款和新增社融均同比少增，主要受居民与企业贷款、政府债净发行和非标融资同比少增拖累，显示实体经济融资需求仍偏弱、而新型政策性金融工具的提振作用有待显现。同时，外汇持续流入背景下8月M1同比增速小幅回升、而M2同比增速回落，后者可能受资本市场波动的拖累。
该机构指，8月社融增速放缓显示内需仍偏弱。往前看，内外需不确定性上升下、社融增速走势或主要取决于国内财政发力情况。8月新增居民与企业贷款、政府债净发行均同比少增，显示内需仍有待改善。往前看，地方债发行提速、叠加新型政策性金融工具落地，或有助于提振企业融资需求，但地方自发性加速化债下、中央加地方的广义财政扩张力度或偏弱。同时，地产现房销售制度落地对地方政府现金流的影响尚待评估。此外，近期国际油价再度明显上涨可能压制全球工业增速，对外需的影响也有待评估。综合来看，该机构预计中央财政发力可能对内需有一定的托举作用，但或尚不足以抵消国内外多重不确定性上升的影响。
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