Tracking Market Trends
TradingKey - On September 14, Eastern Time, the three major US stock indexes closed lower across the board. AI industry executives' collective call to slow the development of advanced models triggered a market reassessment of AI capital expenditure and chip demand prospects. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2023, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this week heated up further.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.29% to 52,426.25 points; the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.48% to 7,619.98 points; and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.56% to 26,186.41 points.
Semiconductor stocks were the main drag of the day, with Nvidia (NVDA) falling 3.36%, Micron Technology (MU) dropping over 5%, and both Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD (AMD) sliding more than 4%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.9%. Recent public safety concerns voiced by executives at OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI regarding the rapid development of AI served as a major event catalyst for the pull-back in chip stocks. Software stocks bucked the trend and rebounded, with ServiceNow (NOW) surging 7.41% and Adobe (ADBE) rising 5.3%.
In commodities, international oil prices remained above $100. Brent crude (UKOIL) rose 2.07% to settle at $106.47, while WTI crude (USOIL) gained 1.9% to close at $101.88. Both crude benchmarks once rose nearly 5% intraday, but gains narrowed significantly after Trump stated that Iran wished to reach an agreement with the United States.
In precious metals, gold (XAUUSD) fell below $4,300. Spot gold dropped 1.14% to $4,298.86. Elevated oil prices, firm US inflation data, and rising expectations for Fed rate hikes kept the US dollar and bond yields strong, exerting pressure on gold.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) diverged from tech stocks, rising to near $78,000 with an intraday gain of about 1.7%; Ethereum (ETH) rose roughly 1.5%, trading around $2,515. Bitcoin remains below its September high of $82,284, with this week's Fed decision and the US Senate's vote on the cryptocurrency regulation bill serving as new key event variables.
Market News
Executives from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI call for a slowdown in AI development, triggering a major correction in global AI stocks. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged AI companies to slow the pace of capacity enhancements in advanced models, with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI head Elon Musk subsequently voicing similar positions. Altman also stated that OpenAI will not move forward with an IPO this year. The remarks prompted investors to reassess the growth rate of AI infrastructure investment and chip demand, leading to broad declines in global AI-related stocks.
The U.S. Senate discusses establishing new safety obligations for major AI companies. U.S. senators are discussing requiring AI developers to prove they have taken "reasonable steps" to prevent models from causing severe harm, while considering empowering the U.S. Department of Commerce to mandate safety certifications from companies and deploy government auditors to test AI products. The proposals remain under negotiation.
A 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed this week becomes the consensus forecast among economists. The latest Reuters poll shows that 86 out of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 15–16 meeting, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. About 53% of respondents expect at least one more rate hike by the end of March 2027.
Major banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan shift to predicting a Fed rate hike in September. Following the latest inflation data and oil prices above $100 stoking inflation concerns, institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank have all revised their forecasts for this week's FOMC meeting, with financial market pricing currently reflecting an approximately 90% probability of a rate hike.
The U.S. Senate releases a new version of the cryptocurrency Clarity Act. Republican senators unveiled the revised text of the cryptocurrency regulation bill, stating that it incorporates 126 substantive amendments proposed by Democrats, including stricter restrictions on public officials profiting from crypto assets. The Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote on Tuesday, which requires 60 votes to proceed.
Kioxia is reportedly considering a U.S. ADR listing to raise at least $10 billion. Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia is exploring raising at least $10 billion through an American Depositary Receipt listing and has discussed the potential transaction with institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase. If the plan moves forward, the listing could occur as early as next year.
A key Saudi oil pipeline is attacked as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declines further. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was temporarily shut down following an attack; the pipeline served as a vital export bypass around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, commercial vessel transit through Hormuz dropped to single digits per day, and Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port currently relies mainly on inventories to maintain exports, with reserves expected to last about 5 to 7 days.
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