美联储加息几成定局,12月再加息也被计价,市场紧盯点阵图

格隆汇
Yesterday
目前,加息已成为美联储基准情景,而且可能不止一次加息。截至9月15日,Kalshi市场定价美联储加息25个基点的概率已升至87%,8月27日时约为30%。从远期利率曲线来看,Kalshi交易员目前还开始计价美联储12月再次加息。今晚,美联储将在利率声明同时公布最新一期《经济预测摘要》(SEP),届时将显示其“点阵图”是否已经向市场预期靠拢——市场目前已计价12月再次加息。沃什在近期讲话中已表现出倾向于“少说而非多说”,因此其新闻发布会可能不会提供太多明确指引,市场或将更多通过反对票数量和点阵图自行判断后续政策路径。

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