美银预测美联储加息至5%以上 建议客户为2年期收益率上行布仓

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【美银预测美联储加息至5%以上 建议客户为2年期收益率上行布仓】美国银行策略师认为,投资者应该开始为美联储将基准利率上调至5%以上的风险做准备。包括Mark Cabana、Meghan Swiber在内的策略师团队表示,利率市场仍低估了美联储本周启动的加息周期最终可能达到的利率水平,敦促客户为美国两年期国债收益率进一步上升进行布仓。掉期市场价格反映美联储还将进行三次幅度加息25基点的加息,这将使有效联邦基金利率升至4.5%-4.75%区间。但美国银行认为,隔夜借贷成本可能重新触及2022年至2023年加息周期的高点,当时联邦基金目标利率最高达到5.5%。美国银行预计,两年期美国国债收益率今年将从周五约4.7%升至5%,这一预测与市场共识相左。该团队表示,美联储主席凯文·沃什有关周三加息撤回了“一定程度宽松”的表述说明官员们尚不认为货币政策已经对美国经济构成制约。

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