大摩:上调今年中国人形机器人出货预测至5万台,2030年将达44.6万台

格隆汇
2 hours ago
摩根士丹利发表报告指,2026年上半年中国供应商占全球人形机器人出货逾97%,相关市场同比增长272%,中国客户占需求逾85%。该行中国工业团队近期将2026年中国出货预测由2.8万台上调至5万台,并预计2030年达44.6万台。该行认为出货占比并非正确计分板,真正差距在于人形机器人能力。美国仍在前沿模型、VLA开发及模拟方面领先,中国则掌控可实现规模化的实体投入及供应链。关键在于美国软件领先能否维持足够长时间,因为中国部署的每一支机队都在收集可能缩小软件差距的真实世界数据。

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