摩根大通:全球石油库存仍有“弹药”压制油价

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【摩根大通:全球石油库存仍有“弹药”压制油价】摩根大通表示,自美伊冲突爆发以来,该行首次无法给出明确基准情景。此前其认为100美元/桶油价、5美元/加仑汽油、4%总体通胀或10年期美债收益率突破5%可能成为美国政策“红线”,推动霍尔木兹海峡重新开放。但六个月后,多项门槛已被突破,冲突退出路径反而更加模糊。不过,摩根大通认为原油进一步大幅上涨并非必然,关键在于市场如何通过库存和需求实现再平衡。该行4月曾预计冲突将导致约16亿桶库存消耗,使可用库存从84亿桶迅速逼近运营下限;实际截至目前,全球原油及成品油库存仅减少5.55亿桶,约为此前预期的三分之一。

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