本次日本央行会议对日元并非利好,全球套息交易再度具备实施条件。
尽管央行落实了美国财长斯科特·贝森特所呼吁、且交易员早已计价的政策收紧,但多项因素利空日元:此次加息决议遭到两名政策委员反对,无人主张更大幅度加息;央行声明虽承诺将持续加息,却未给出加息时间节点,未能释放紧迫的加息信号。
日本基准利率仍远低于中性利率水平,若不连续加息,日元弱势格局将会延续。在十国集团经济体中,目前仅有瑞士法郎利率更低,瑞士央行将于下周召开会议。倘若瑞士央行重申维持零利率的倾向,两大主要融资货币对应的汇率波动将会维持低位。
多国央行密集召开会议后,布伦特原油本月或将迎来首次周度下跌,此前深度超卖的全球债券迎来喘息。英国央行计划暂停债券出售,停止处置2049年及以后到期的证券,这一举措提振长期英国国债。30年期英国国债将显著受益,尽管即将出炉的秋季预算状况可能限制涨幅,但周四的涨势大概率会延续。
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