花旗:预期美联储将按兵不动到年底,明年6月恢复降息

格隆汇
4 hours ago
花旗发表报告,预期未来数月核心通胀的按月升幅将较为温和,令美联储官员感到意外,亦不预期经济增长会显著加快,料美联储将于10月维持利率不变。与主席沃什对劳动市场的描述不同,花旗认为近期招聘增长温和、失业率维持低位,仅是因为劳动参与率迅速下降,并不等于劳动需求正在加速。该行预期美联储会在10月后等候更多数据,以评估政策利率上调25个基点的影响,其后于12月再次按兵不动,届时一连串较温和的通胀数据应可提供足够证据显示通胀正在放缓,支持美联储再次维持利率不变。随着通胀持续降温,花旗预计美联储将于2027年6月恢复降息。

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