RBC BlueBay:预期日元或轻微偏软,收益率曲线或出现扭曲陡峭化

格隆汇
2 hours ago
日本央行如期加息25个基点,RBC BlueBay基金经理Wataru Aso 表示,是次加息后,日本政策利率上升至1.25%,达到央行自身估算中性利率区间的下限水平。鉴于相关门槛已经达成,若此时释放进一步加息讯号,将偏离央行一贯审慎、以经济数据为依归的政策立场。展望后市,Wataru Aso称,日本央行下一项重要参考依据将为季度短观调查,但相关数据需待10月初公布,因此现阶段仍未具备足够条件判断央行会否继续加息。市场反应方面,RBC BlueBay预期日元或轻微偏软,收益率曲线则有机会出现扭曲陡峭化,惟整体波幅料相对有限。由于市场早已大致消化今次加息预期,而日本央行会后声明及政策指引基调偏向鸽派,因此市场波动有限。

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