英国央行:CPI数据支持英国央行采取“鹰派式暂停”

格隆汇
6 hours ago
机构研究主管凯瑟琳·布鲁克斯周三表示,最新CPI数据支持英国央行采取“鹰派式暂停”。但是真正的通胀冲击可能出现在9月。布鲁克斯表示,目前尚无迹象表明通胀正在向更广泛的经济领域传导。不过,通胀报告中原材料成本同比上涨6.1%,出厂价格上涨3.7%,这些成本要么最终转嫁给本已承压的消费者,要么挤压企业利润率,两种情况都不利于英国经济。布鲁克斯指出,核心通胀保持稳定是积极信号,但英国央行已经表示,能源价格如今比核心通胀更能影响通胀预期。此外,能源价格上限持续高企也令未来通胀面临上行风险。布鲁克斯认为,尽管市场已下调英国央行近期加息预期,但未来加息仍不能排除,目前市场仍计价截至明年底约4次加息。除非伊朗战争结束、中东供应限制缓解,否则英国经济仍将面临长期加息压力。

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