【美联储三年来首次加息 经济学家预期年内还将加息】摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家迈克尔·加蓬表示:“如果央行认定当前政策尚不具备限制性,且油价持续高位,那么还有不少工作要做。”议息会议结束后,他上调预期,预计含本次加息在内,全年一共将加息三次,此前预期为两次。对美联储利率预期高度敏感的2年期美债收益率,攀升至两年多以来最高水平。 沃什表示,上述政策观点得到利率决议委员会全体认同。法国巴黎银行首席美国经济学家詹姆斯·埃格尔霍夫解读称,沃什释放的信号表明,官员预估的今年两次加息,“很可能只是漫长紧缩周期的开端”。保德信信用首席投资官格雷戈里·彼得斯认为,此次加息是一条加息路径的起点,而非一次性调整。他表示,除非通胀数据转向,“很难判断他们下个月不会继续加息”。 埃格尔霍夫表示,本次发布会是“主动修复政策可信度的强力尝试”,全票支持的预期点阵图为此提供支撑。“当团队站在你身后,领导工作会轻松很多;不用再费力拼凑一套共识说辞,去说服一个本就意见分裂的委员会。”
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