高盛:预计美联储10月再加息0.25%

智通财经
2 hours ago

智通财经APP获悉,高盛发布研报称,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将联邦基金利率上调25个基点至3.75-4%,尽管市场普遍预期今次加息,但本次会议较该行预期更为鹰派,现料FOMC将于10月再加息25个基点,此前预期为9月是唯一一次加息。

该行认为连续加息是最自然的政策选择,因为这符合FOMC所说的“更及时地回归”2%目标,但再进一步的加息则非其基准情境,其中一个原因是,该行对核心个人消费支出通胀的预测仍低于FOMC委员预测的中位数,该行对今年第四季及明年第四季的预测分别为3.2%及2.2%,FOMC中位数则是3.4%及2.5%。

高盛维持终端利率为3.25-3.5%的预测不变,当中反映2027年9月及12月、2028年3月减息各减25个基点的预测。

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