富达国际:美联储已重启加息周期 基本假设认为加息三至四次

智通财经
3 hours ago

智通财经APP获悉,富达国际全球宏观及策略资产配置主管Salman Ahmed表示,一如普遍市场预期,美联储宣布加息25个基点。这次决议所带来的更重要讯息是,美联储的政策反应机制正逐渐明朗化。而且本次决议获得一致通过,这一点尤为重要。

富达的基本假设仍维持认为这轮周期将加息三至四次,而非一次性调整。不过,此观点的前提是AI资本开支周期持续。

公司续称,现阶段美联储已重启加息周期,委员会立场一致,而点阵图亦显示此轮周期尚未结束。更重要的是,美联储现时预测通胀将更长时间维持高于目标水平,这与富达的资本市场假设所采纳的结构性通胀框架一致。另政策路径仍将取决于数据,然而若AI投资周期维持强劲且通胀依然高企,富达认为此轮收紧货币政策周期还会进一步延续。

长期债券市场的反应亦值得留意,尽管美联储加息且点阵图偏向强硬立场,但长期债券的收益率却有所回落,是利好现象,但也不宜过早对美联储的政策公信力下定论。至少,市场并未将这次会议视为长期通胀风险增加的讯号。真正的问题在于,此轮加息周期最终会走多远。

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