中信证券:预计美联储年内将再加息25bps,A股配置上建议维持AI+能化的结构

智通财经
2 hours ago
【中信证券:预计美联储年内将再加息25bps,A股配置上建议维持AI+能化的结构】中信证券发布研报称,预计美联储年内将再加息25bps,明年可能按兵不动。美国金融条件目前难以有意义地宽松,在增长叙事下应寻找有基本面支撑而非仅受益于流动性的资产。大类资产方面,在美联储面临持续加息风险的情况下,中国债券、大宗商品和低估值权益等具有安全性和确定性的资产更值得关注。A股方面,加息风险释放应被视作买点而非卖点,AI仍是当下少数能够抵抗利率上行的板块,利率预期持续上修可能会重新加大K型分化。配置上建议维持AI+能化的结构。港股方面,高股息的相对收益率优势有所收窄,配置上应进一步考察现金流稳定性、盈利确定性和分红可持续性,并关注南向持仓占比较高、外资边际定价权相对较低的细分方向。美股方面,若日元兑美元进一步升值的预期产生,美股科技股或面临更大的压力。建议关注美股军工、能源和金融板块。中长期看,“财政收缩+低通胀+稳定增长”的组合有望压低长端利率,推动美股重回“估值+盈利”的双击行情。

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