Accenture Stock Drops. Why This Analyst is Worried About Demand.

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Shares of Accenture dropped Friday after the consulting company caught a downgrade from a Wall Street analyst who cited a disconnect between the company's financial performance and a recent jump in its share price.

Guggenheim analyst Jonathan Lee downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy, removing his $185 price target. Lee wrote that the stock's over 50% surge since min-June, which drastically outperformed the S&P 500's roughly 2% gain, was unjustified since there was "no corresponding improvement" in customer demand.

Accenture stock fell 4% to $183.72 on Friday.

Lee pointed to declining job listings, which suggest slowing headcount growth and weaker consulting demand. He also viewed the company's recent launch of Accenture Edge, which targets midsize businesses, as evidence that big enterprise clients, Accenture's core revenue driver, have pulled back on spending.

An Accenture representative told Barron's they are reviewing Lee's analysis.

Lee added that Accenture's valuation leaves little room for error. Though the company is growing at a similar rate to its peers like technology services company Cognizant, its stock trades at a significantly higher valuation relative to future earnings.

With high expectations already priced in, any minor stumble in its upcoming earnings, which the company will release Oct. 1, could cause shares to drop.

Although Accenture has begun to recover from last year's federal spending cuts-a major source of recent drag-Lee sees few catalysts for organic growth anytime soon. He noted that while local-currency total revenue grew 3% in the fiscal third quarter, that figure is misleading: a large chunk of that stemmed from acquisitions and a lower baseline rather than underlying demand.

Lee anticipates weak fiscal fourth-quarter results as core organic growth only rose 1% in the last quarter. He highlighted other major industry headwinds: corporate clients are taking longer to close major contracts and competitors have slashed prices to win larger projects, squeezing Accenture's near-term consulting revenues.

Accenture shares are down 32% this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The stock suffered a 37% plunge during the second quarter, capped by its worst single-day percentage drop on record following mixed fiscal third-quarter earnings. Piling onto investor concerns, the company also lowered its fiscal year outlook for the second time this year.

 

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