金吾财讯 | 美股光通信概念股走强，截至发稿，Coherent（COHR）涨4.26%，MaxLinear（MXL）涨4.45%，博通（AVGO）涨3.54%，Lumentum（LITE）涨3.00%，Credo Technology（CRDO）涨2.82%，康宁（GLW）涨2.41%，Applied Optoelectronics（AAOI）涨2.05%，AXT Inc（AXTI）涨2.08%。消息面上，东吴证券新近研究指，互连带宽增长滞后于算力提升，数据传输瓶颈日益突出。NPO/CPO有望打开Scale-Up市场空间。随着Scale-Up域由单机柜向多机柜扩展，铜互连面临更大的传输距离、信号完整性及功耗压力，光互连有望加速进入柜间Scale-Up场景，拓展行业需求边界。中金公司研究亦表示，结合展会调研，部分高速光芯片企业订单排期已延伸至2028年及以后，光模块订单能见度覆盖2027年及以后；头部光模块厂商积极锁定DSP、mSAP PCB、高速光芯片等核心物料。预计后续交付差异将更多取决于关键物料保障、良率和客户认证，其中先进制程DSP可能成为最紧缺环节。预计至2028年，NPO在标准和工程方案逐步收敛、良率爬升后有望加速上量，CPO或逐步进入Scale-up；OCS从少数云厂商自用走向更多AI集群，带动2.4T轻相干应用下沉；400G per lane推动器件升级，薄膜铌酸锂有望加速进入客户验证及应用窗口。
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