【兴业证券刘郁：美联储可能至少还会加息25个基点】美联储9月FOMC会议决定将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点至3.75%—4.0%。对此，兴业证券首席经济学家刘郁表示，本轮加息周期启动后，出于抑制经济过热和通胀的目的，可能至少还会加息25个基点。美联储点阵图指向今年年底之前还有一次25个基点的加息，与市场预期差别不大。至于2027年是否继续加息，取决于美国后续的增长和通胀数据。如AI资本开支延续偏高增速，无论生产率是否增长，2027年加息的可能性都较大，加息周期的终点或介于4%—5%之间。受制于债务压力，本轮加息至5%以上的概率不高，除非确认生产率得到了大幅提升。资产方面，美联储加息，提升美联储可信度，有助于在短期内稳住长端，推动曲线平坦化。拉长来看，美债长端利率上行受到油价上涨、财政赤字和AI资本开支三重拉动，油价在1—6个月窗口可能出现转跌，但赤字和AI资本开支两大结构性因素，在短期逆转的可能性不高，长端利率继续上行的风险仍然存在，10年期美债利率可能上行至5.2%—5.5%区间。
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