金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发文研究称，据农业农村部监测数据显示，截至8月末，全国奶牛存栏575.9万头，环比去化0.9万头，去化幅度较7月（环比-0.4万头）重新扩大，产能出清方向并未改变。26年8月全国平均合同奶价已回升至3.06元/公斤、散奶价格回升至3.31元/公斤；叠加季节性因素，9月前两周散奶均价达3.63元/公斤。需求端，26年1-7月乳制品产量同比+6%，结束了24-25年的同比负增长。
该机构指，原奶供给端持续去化&需求端弱复苏之下，26H2原奶周期有望走向供需平衡、原奶价格有望企稳回升，上游牧场的盈利弹性或持续释放，下游乳企的竞争费用亦有望收敛。
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