金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，NOAA预计一次有观测记录以来最强的“超强”厄尔尼诺事件或将形成。玉米、棕榈减产概率较大，大豆存增产可能。1）玉米：历史3次超强厄尔尼诺均导致减产。过往减产主要由巴西导致，历史3次超强事件中有2次造成巴西玉米面积下降17-18%。2）大豆：历史3次超强厄尔尼诺发生2次增产。厄尔尼诺导致巴西北部干旱和南部降水对其大豆生产影响存在对冲，历史产量正向概率更大。3）棕榈：历史3次超强厄尔尼诺均导致减产。产区高度集中于东南亚，干旱普遍导致单产下修。对于农产品价格预判：供需收紧为基础，极端天气、高油价和贸易扰动共振催化农产品价格上涨。该机构测算全球玉米/大豆库消比每下降1ppt，对应价格涨幅约20%、9%。玉米层面，美国干旱冲击提振价格，南美潜在洪涝影响决定涨价上限。大豆层面，全球产量下修预期抬高价格，高油价推升生物柴油需求形成支撑。中性假设下，该机构预计3-6个月外盘CBOT玉米/大豆价格涨幅20%/10%。我国小麦、水稻等供应保障充足，该机构预计受极端天气影响有限。
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