The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1102 ET - Investors could be underestimating the Bank of Japan's resolve to fight inflation. TS Lombard's Rory Green says in a note that the BoJ "is a poor communicator and markets are equally bad at deciphering the bank's statements." He says it took a while for markets to price a September hike after July's forward guidance. "A similar dynamic is at play now," Green says, as the yen weakens 1% against the dollar even after a new BoJ hike to 1.25%. He acknowledges that political pressure against higher rates supports BoJ doves, but notes the U.S. fights in the opposite direction for a stronger yen. Green expects Japan's monetary tightening to end at 2% by July. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1039 ET - Gold prices fall despite lower oil prices, as a stronger dollar and rate-hike expectations weigh on the precious metal. In early U.S. trade, New York futures are down 0.3% to $4,385.60 a troy ounce, on track for a weekly loss of 0.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts, however, maintain their gold-price forecast to $5,400 an ounce by the end of next year. "While higher rates should continue to weigh on gold prices through ETF demand in the near term, our economists expect the Fed to deliver three cuts between September 2027 and March 2028, leaving the terminal forecast unchanged at 3.25%-3.5%," they say. "We therefore expect the impact of tighter monetary policy to be felt primarily through a slower near-term appreciation path rather than a lower terminal gold price." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1031 ET - Russia's move to seize Nestle's business in the country casts a cloud over the terms of a potential sale of the unit, but the Swiss food group faces a limited financial impact otherwise, Vontobel's Jean-Philippe Bertschy says. "While negative for sentiment and raising the prospect of an asset impairment or unfavorable disposal, we expect a marginal financial impact, given Russia's limited contribution to group sales," Bertschy says in a research note. Russia accounted for around 2% of Nestle's sales in 2021, the last disclosed figure, but its current contribution is probably just over 1% given that the company significantly reduced activity in the country since then, the analyst says. Shares fall 2.4%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

1017 ET - Live cattle futures are unchanged in early trading, ahead of the Cattle on Feed report from the USDA later today. Analysts surveyed by WSJ forecast a higher total of cattle on U.S. feedlots, an uptick of 1.8 percentage points from the same time last year. But new placements of cattle on feedlots, as well as marketings of cattle from feedlots, are forecast by analysts to be lower from the same month last year. The monthly report is scheduled to be published at 3 p.m. ET. Lean hog futures are up 0.1% in early trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1007 ET - U.S. harvesting is underway, but analysts are looking ahead to what 2027 crop budgets may look like. While input costs remain a tough obstacle for farmers to overcome, Purdue University's new projections show that farm acres are expected to be profitable next year. The university's Center for Commercial Agriculture says that corn or soybean acres planted in Indiana next year could make farmers anywhere from just above $100 an acre to as much as nearly $470 an acre--depending on the quality of the soil and the rotation of their crops. "For average productivity soils, current contribution margin estimates range from about $200 to $350 per acre depending on the crop," says Purdue in a release accompanying the forecasts. CBOT grain futures are lower in early trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1006 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher and looking to end the week with gains as extended summer weather keeps up cooling demand in the southern half of the country. National demand is expected to remain high the next couple of days, then moderate before dropping off toward the end of next week, according to NatGasWeather.com. "The overnight data was little changed, thereby maintaining bearish weather patterns for the 3-20 day forecast period," the forecaster adds. Nymex gas is up 0.8% at $2.924/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1000 ET - Oil futures are mixed with WTI rising and Brent slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The selloff the previous two sessions has slowed on news that Saudi Arabia notified European customers they won't be receiving any crude next month due to the damaged East-West pipeline, and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Near-term supplies remain tight, and the over $5.00/barrel spread between Oct/Nov WTI is keeping traders on the buying side, he adds. WTI for October delivery is up 1.3% at $103.20 a barrel ahead of Tuesday's expiration, and the most-active November contract gains 0.6% to $97.84. November Brent is off 0.1% at $104.64. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0940 ET - Ahead of next week's meetings with China, the USDA has announced a new flash sale of U.S. soybeans to the world's biggest agricultural buyer. The USDA says that 111,000 metric tons of soybeans have been sold to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. It's the first flash sale to China since Sept. 10. Next week's meetings are expected to have a lot of importance for U.S. agricultural trade. "China's recent US soybean buying has increased the agricultural importance of the meeting," says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "State-owned food trader Cofco is expected to be represented in the broader Chinese delegation, keeping attention on possible additional purchases of US agricultural products." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0930 ET - Meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials, reaching a crescendo next week with a meeting between President Trump and Chinese president Xi on Thursday, are grabbing the focus of grain traders heading into the weekend. "Expect volatility to ramp up significantly next week with the China/U.S. talks," says the Hightower Report in a note, adding that "headline risk [is] extremely high." Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is meeting his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng over the weekend, which may set the tone for trading early next week. CBOT corn is down 0.3%, soybeans slide 0.8%, and wheat is off 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0925 ET - The Bank of Japan answered U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's call to raise rates, but the yen is still weaker, potentially creating a new concern for Bessent, who helped lead the first coordinated support for the yen since 1998 earlier this summer. "The result was that while the BoJ certainly did shift hawkish, it was not enough to meet market expectations ramped up by US Treasury Secretary Bessent who had talked up his 'asymmetric information' in his battle to strengthen the Yen," says Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI. "The BoJ's reticence to signal more aggressive policy will strain his efforts to strengthen the Japanese currency." The Japanese yen is off 1% against the U.S. Dollar at 157.73 JPY. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

0541 ET - Harbour Energy's exposure to European gas prices will turbocharge free cash flow generation, BofA analyst Cian Evans-Cowie writes as he upgrades the stock to buy from neutral with a new target price of 350 pence, from 280 pence. Shares have lagged peers despite having the highest free cash flow sensitivity to European gas prices, he says. Harbour's free cash flow for 2026 could be around $2.65 billion, which implies a more than 45% upside to the company's guidance, he says. This cash can be used to pay down net debt, which is seen falling more than 30% by end of 2026, he adds. This will then free up more cash to return to shareholders, he says. Shares rise 2% to 277.00 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0341 ET - Gold prices rise above the $4,400-an-ounce mark, supported by lower Treasury yields and easing oil prices. "Gold's resilience is notable given that the Fed has just begun a new hiking cycle and the dollar remains relatively firm, suggesting continued demand from investors less sensitive to the traditional rates-and-dollar relationship," analysts at Saxo Bank say. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.8% to $4,434.90 a troy ounce, on track for a modest weekly gain. Still, the prospect of further interest-rate hikes this year continues to weigh on the precious metal, as higher rates typically increase gold's opportunity cost and strengthen the dollar.