高盛:工业板块比科技股“还贵” 全球板块定价逻辑生变

智通财经
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智通财经APP获悉,高盛研究部最新板块估值分析显示,工业板块的12个月远期市盈率现已高于科技板块,表明全球股市各板块之间的相对估值正在发生转变。工业板块的远期市盈率为19.4倍,高于整体市场的16.7倍和科技板块的16.2倍。工业板块也跻身全球股市估值较高的板块之列,仅次于成长股的20.6倍、必需消费的18.7倍和非必需消费的18.7倍。

该研究将MSCI全球指数各板块及风格估值与过去20年历史数据进行了比较。

这一估值差距值得关注,因为科技板块历来相对于许多其他板块都享有溢价。高盛数据显示,通信服务板块远期市盈率为18.1倍,医疗保健为17.7倍。公用事业为15.1倍,材料为14.6倍,价值股为14.0倍。

相比之下,能源板块远期市盈率为12.8倍,而金融板块的市盈率在各板块中最低,为12.7倍。这种差异凸显了全球股票板块当前估值与长期历史水平之间的巨大差异。

这些数据出炉之际,投资者正因利率、盈利增长和资本支出预期变化而评估板块配置。高盛还指出,美国股市整体估值今年有所回落,标普500远期市盈率从约22倍降至19倍,而相对债券的估值则基本保持不变。

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