What's Really Driving Inflation and Rising Interest Rates

Dow Jones
4 hours ago

Also in Weekend Reads: The housing market, retirement planning with an age gap, and a combination of warnings and opportunities in the stock market

The oil market has had wide-ranging effects on inflation, interest rates and monetary policy this year.

The world can seem very small when conflict in the Middle East causes gasoline prices in the U.S. to rise to an average of $4.44 a gallon, according to AAA - up from $2.98 right before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February,

But the oil market's influence goes much further. Isabel Wang explained how the global oil market has become the most important factor influencing the stock and bond markets.

October contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (CL.1) were trading for $102.22 a barrel early Friday, up from a front-month WTI delivery price (CL00) of $57.42 a barrel at the end of 2025.

Related coverage:

-- Saudi Arabia is now pushing to export more oil through the Strait of Hormuz

-- Top Senate Republican floats a diesel export ban as prices soar. It might not work.

-- The price of almost everything on your dinner table is climbing at once - and Wall Street is taking notice

The Fed ahead

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. Victor Reklaitis and Greg Robb described how Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh impressed investors with the clarity of his comments about inflation and U.S. economic growth, and what to expect from the Fed through the end of the year.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y was just below 5% early on Friday. Rising bond yields mean falling bond prices. Joy Wiltermuth looked into how the worst run for Treasury bond prices in over 100 years has been causing some investors to move money back into this market.

More coverage tied to the Fed's move:

-- The Fed hasn't been this terse since 2007. What a 130-word statement signals for market stability.

-- 5% Treasury yields mean America's debt bill just got a lot bigger

-- Retail sales surged toward the end of summer. The U.S. economy has plenty of momentum.

More on the bond market: Traditional bond investors have lost money for years. These five-star portfolio managers show a better way.

The housing market reels as mortgage interest rates increase

The national average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage loan was 6.95% for the week ended Sept. 17, according to Freddie Mac.

The national average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage loan has increased from 6.15% at the end of 2025, according to data compiled by Freddie Mac.

The chart above shows that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen from about 3% five years ago. But the current average of close to 7% is below the mean of 7.68% for the weekly data going back to April 1971.

If you are looking to by a newly constructed home, builders are offering a variety of incentives, as Aarthi Swaminathan reported.

How to plan for retirement if you and your spouse have a 10-year age gap

You might need to plan for two retirements. Beth Pinsker dug into three factors that couples must consider when planning for retirement if they have an age gap. Start planning early.

More from Beth Pinsker's Fix My Portfolio column:

-- 90% of retirees are making this miscalculation with their savings

-- When people with student debt try to save for retirement, they fall behind early and never catch up

What you give up if you never own a home

As part of MarketWatch's continuing series about the declining percentage of young adults who own homes, Jillian Berman summarized how giving up on homeownership can affect one's ability to build wealth over the course of a career.

Check out MarketWatch's New American Playbook for insights into young American adults and their money.

Intel's rehab

Shares of Intel were trading at $109.80 early on Sept. 18, up from $30.57 a year earlier.

Intel's stock (INTC) has more than tripled over the past year, even though it is down significantly from its 2026 peak at end of June. Emily Bary highlighted a possible new partnership for Intel that excited investors this week.

More technology coverage from MarketWatch:

-- Amazon's secret weapon against Walmart could be a massive blitz in same-day delivery

-- Factory robots long posed a safety threat to human workers. This company says it has solved that problem.

-- Micron's stock could climb 70% higher thanks to a factor that's been largely absent so far

-- Google is playing a different AI game than everyone else, and Wall Street may be missing the point

Stock-market warnings

Mark Hulbert explained why strong recent performance for growth stocks is actually a warning that a bubble may burst.

Joseph Adinolfi shared a warning for investors combining seasonal factors with fear of AI.

Stock-market opportunities

Charles Lemonides of ValueWorks presented three stocks of underdogs he favors against larger competitors.

The forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500's SPX information-technology sector XX:SP500.45 has declined to 20.6, from 26.6 at the end of 2025. That is because the weighted rolling 12-month earnings estimate for the sector, based on consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet, has increased 59%, while the sector's weighted price has increased by 23.5%.

Here's why analysts at Truist consider this "healthy reset" to be a buying opportunity for tech stocks.

Here's a screen of companies that have increased their dividend payouts the most over the past five years. There's a strong correlation between rapid dividend increases and beating the return of the S&P 500.

The Moneyist and long-term-care insurance

Quentin Fottrell is The Moneyist.

This week, Quentin Fottrell - The Moneyist - answered questions from a 55-year-old woman who is planning ahead. Should she purchase "incredibly expensive" long-term-care insurance for her and for her husband? Fottrell broke down the costs and the risks.

More advice from The Moneyist:

-- 'I'm burned out': I'm constantly helping my cousin who is running out of money. Is it too much to expect his sister to help?

-- My son has a potentially fatal genetic disease. What should I do with my $1.3 million estate?

-- My rental property is paid off, but I need cash. Is this a bad time to take out a $50,000 HELOC?

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-Philip van Doorn

 

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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